Earthquakes: Risk, Detection, Warning, andResearch

Peter Folger
Specialist in Energy and Natural Resources Policy

The 1994 Northridge (CA) earthquake caused as much as $26 billion (in 2005 dollars) in damage and was one of the costliest natural disasters to strike the United States. The Federal Emergency Management Agency has estimated that earthquakes cost the United States over $5 billion per year. A hypothetical scenario for a magnitude 7.8 earthquake in southern California estimated a possibility of 1,800 fatalities and over $200 billion in economic losses. The January 12, 2010, magnitude 7.0 earthquake that struck Haiti only 15 miles from Port-au-Prince, the capital city, has caused an estimated 230,000 fatalities and 300,000 injuries. On February 27, 2010, a magnitude 8.8 earthquake occurred offshore of Chile and has caused massive damage, although far fewer fatalities than the Haiti earthquake. The Cascadia Subduction Zone megathrust fault, which stretches from southern British Columbia to northern California, has the potential to generate a massive earthquake and tsunami, similar to the Chilean earthquake, that could threaten Oregon, Washington, and northern California. 

The United States faces the possibility of large economic losses from earthquake-damaged buildings and infrastructure. California alone accounts for most of the estimated annualized earthquake losses for the nation, and with Oregon and Washington the three states account for nearly $4.1 billion (77%) of the U.S. total estimated annualized loss. A single large earthquake, however, can cause far more damage than the average annual estimate. 

An ongoing issue for Congress is whether the federally supported programs aimed at reducing U.S. vulnerability to earthquakes are an adequate response to the earthquake hazard. Under the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), four federal agencies have responsibility for long-term earthquake risk reduction: the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). They variously assess U.S. earthquake hazards, send notifications of seismic events, develop measures to reduce earthquake hazards, and conduct research to help reduce overall U.S. vulnerability to earthquakes. 

Congress reauthorized NEHRP in 2004 (P.L. 108-360) through FY2009. Appropriations for NEHRP from FY2005 to FY2009 did not meet authorized levels; the total funding enacted was $615.5 million, approximately 68% of the total amount of $902.4 million authorized by P.L. 108- 360. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA; P.L. 111-5) provided some additional funding for earthquake activities under NEHRP through FY2010. In the 111th Congress, H.R. 3820 would reauthorize NEHRP through FY2014, authorizing total appropriations of $806 million over five years for the program, with 88% of the funding designated for the USGS and NSF, and the remainder for FEMA and NIST. The total authorized amounts are about $100 million less than what was authorized by P.L. 108-360 over five years. If future appropriations match the funding levels authorized under H.R. 3820, however, these funds would exceed the total cumulative amounts actually appropriated between FY2005 and FY2009. 

What effect funding at the levels enacted through FY2009 under NEHRP has had on the U.S. capability to detect earthquakes and minimize losses after an earthquake occurs is not clear. It is also difficult to predict precisely how NEHRP reauthorized under H.R. 3820 would achieve a major goal of the bill: to reduce the loss of life and damage to communities and infrastructure through increasing the adoption of hazard mitigation measures. A perennial issue for Congress is whether activities under NEHRP can reduce the potential for catastrophic loss in the next giant earthquake to strike the United States. .


Date of Report: March 3, 2010
Number of Pages: 32
Order Number: RL33861
Price: $29.95

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